The freight market in early 2025 is a tale of cautious recovery, persistent challenges, and looming uncertainties. The latest data from the Cass Freight Index® for February 2025, paired with the ACT Research Freight Forecast, offers a window into these dynamics—shipments rebounding, expenditures fluctuating, and rates hinting at stabilization. At Gain Consulting, we’ve crunched the numbers to bring you a clear picture of what’s happening and how it impacts your supply chain. With ACT Research’s proven track record—boasting a 95.0% accuracy rate for its 2024 Cass Freight Index Shipments forecasts over an 18-month period—this analysis is grounded in reliable insights that can guide your strategy for the year ahead.
Shipments: A Partial Recovery with Seasonal Twists
The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index showed signs of life in February 2025, climbing 10.5% month-over-month (m/m). However, nearly half of this gain aligns with normal seasonality, tempering the optimism. On a year-over-year (y/y) basis, the decline narrowed to 5.5% from 8.2% in January, while seasonally adjusted (SA) figures revealed a 4.9% m/m increase, rebounding from a 2.7% drop in January. This volatility reflects a mix of severe January weather disruptions and a February boost from pre-tariff shipping ahead of potential USMCA changes.
Looking forward, normal seasonality suggests a narrower 3%-4% y/y drop in March shipments, though the pre-tariff surge could reverse, softening gains. The broader trend is sobering: after a 13% rise in 2021 and a modest 0.6% uptick in 2022, shipments fell 5.5% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024. So far, 2025 is trending toward another decline, driven by persistent private fleet capacity additions that continue to siphon volume from the for-hire market. Amazon’s recent moves to build an LTL network underscore this shift, keeping for-hire conditions soft.
For supply chain leaders, this means demand visibility remains murky. The interplay of weather, tariffs, and insourcing requires agile planning to avoid over- or under-committing resources.
Expenditures: A Mixed Bag of Volumes and Rates
The expenditures component, which tracks total freight spending, rose 3.6% m/m in February but saw its y/y decline widen to 4.6% from 4.2% in January. This drop was more than explained by the 5.5% y/y fall in shipments, suggesting rates edged up slightly—by 1.0% y/y, as inferred from the data. In SA terms, expenditures dipped 0.3% m/m despite the shipment increase, with rates softening due to a shift toward lower-cost modes.
This index’s volatility stems from its inclusion of fuel costs, modal mix, and accessorial charges, unlike the steadier Cass Truckload Linehaul Index®. Historically, expenditures soared 38% in 2021 and 23% in 2022, only to plummet 19% in 2023 and 11% in 2024. The February data hints at a stabilization in spending patterns, but the y/y decline signals ongoing cost pressures for shippers.
For your supply chain, this suggests a delicate balance: while shipment volumes may be recovering, total costs aren’t ballooning—a potential opportunity to lock in rates before external factors, like tariffs, shift the equation.
Inferred Freight Rates: A Reversion to the Mean
Cass Inferred Freight Rates™, calculated by dividing expenditures by shipments, fell 6.2% m/m in February (4.9% SA), reversing an 11% rise over the prior five months (6.3% SA). This drop reflects a shift toward lower-cost modes, unwinding some mix-driven gains from late 2024. On a y/y basis, rates slowed to a 1.0% increase from 4.3% in January, aligning with modest contract rate growth.
After a 7% decline in 2024, rates are on track for low- to mid-single-digit increases in 2025, with March potentially flattening out based on seasonal norms. This dataset, dominated by truckload (TL) freight (over 50% of spend), followed by LTL, rail, and parcel, offers a broad view of cost-per-shipment trends. The February reversion suggests shippers may find temporary relief, but the outlook remains fluid.
For businesses, this is a moment to scrutinize carrier contracts and mode choices—flexibility in modal mix could yield savings as rates hover near stability.
Truckload Linehaul Index: A Bright Spot
The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, a cleaner measure of linehaul rates, rose 1.2% m/m in February—its sixth consecutive monthly gain since a cycle low in August 2024. At 4.8% above that low, the index posted a 1.9% y/y increase, up from 0.8% in January. After falling 10% in 2023 and 3% in 2024, this positive start to 2025 hints at a turning tide for truckload rates.
This uptick reflects tightening capacity and rising spot rates, though contract rates remain tempered. For supply chains reliant on truckload, this could signal higher costs ahead—but also an opportunity to secure capacity before rates climb further.
Freight Expectations: Uncertainty and Opportunity
The broader freight outlook, as detailed in the ACT Research Freight Forecast, is fraught with uncertainty. Tariffs loom large, with the USMCA exemption paused until April 2, 2025, potentially adding $20,000 per Class 8 tractor if enacted. Meanwhile, the EPA’s low-NOx standards, set for 2027, are under review, reducing private fleet pre-buying and equipment supply. Combined, these factors could trigger a supply shock, pushing rates higher—a silver lining for the for-hire market amid recession risks.
ACT’s forecasts, which nailed the 2024 Cass Truckload Linehaul Index at 139.3 (98.8% accurate) and shipments at 95.0% accuracy, lend credibility to this outlook. Through 2027, the report predicts capacity, volume, and rate trends across TL, LTL, and intermodal, offering a three-year horizon for strategic planning.
What This Means for Your Supply Chain
At Gain Consulting, we see these trends as a call to action for supply chain leaders:
Prepare for Volatility: Shipments may dip in March as pre-tariff effects fade, and tariff uncertainty could spike costs. Scenario planning is essential—model outcomes with and without USMCA changes to stay ahead.
Optimize Mode Mix: The inferred rate drop highlights savings potential in lower-cost modes. We can help you analyze your freight profile and shift where it makes sense.
Lock in Truckload Capacity: Rising linehaul rates suggest tightening conditions. Secure contracts now to avoid premium pricing later.
Leverage Data-Driven Insights: ACT’s forecast accuracy underscores the power of reliable data. Our analytics can translate these indices into actionable strategies tailored to your operations.
Partnering with Gain Consulting
The freight market in 2025 is a puzzle of recovery and risk, but it’s one we’re equipped to solve. At Gain Consulting, we bring decades of expertise to help you navigate shipment trends, manage expenditures, and capitalize on rate shifts. Whether it’s optimizing your carrier network or building resilience against tariff shocks, we’re here to turn data into decisions.
Contact us today to explore how the Cass Freight Index and ACT’s forecasts can inform your next move. Let’s build a supply chain that doesn’t just react to 2025’s challenges—but thrives through them.
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