Tariff-Driven Import Rush Boosts LTL Freight Volumes: Opportunities and Risks

At Gain Consulting, we empower U.S. shippers to navigate the complexities of today’s supply chain landscape with data-driven strategies. The rush of imports into the U.S. ahead of new tariffs, as reported by the Journal of Commerce, has sparked a surge in less-than-truckload (LTL) freight volumes, particularly near seaports and U.S.-Mexico border crossings. However, this uptick is uneven, with regional carriers seeing more gains than national ones, and a looming slowdown in import bookings from China threatens to dampen the momentum. Below, we unpack the dynamics of this tariff-driven freight surge, its implications for U.S. shippers, and actionable strategies to optimize your supply chain in 2025.

The Import Rush: A Tariff-Driven LTL Surge

The anticipation of new tariffs, including a 10% baseline tariff on most imports, 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico (partially paused for 90 days), and up to 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, has driven U.S. importers to frontload shipments. This “pull-forward” strategy, aimed at beating tariff implementation, has significantly boosted LTL freight volumes, particularly in regions close to major gateways. According to the Journal of Commerce, LTL carriers near seaports and U.S.-Mexico border crossings are reaping the benefits, while national carriers see less pronounced gains.

Kent Williams, executive vice president of sales and marketing at Averitt, a Tennessee-based regional trucking company, noted, “We have seen a noticeable but manageable increase in our cross-border traffic at our Texas border facilities.” This surge, primarily in LTL volume, began in early March 2025 and reflects heightened demand for moving goods from Mexico into the U.S. Averitt’s other services, including truckload and drayage, have also experienced elevated demand, particularly at portside facilities across the South, as shippers rush to clear goods before tariffs take effect.

The U.S.-Mexico border has emerged as a hotspot, fueled by the ongoing U.S.-Mexico trade dispute and tariffs announced under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). These tariffs, effective February 4, 2025, for non-energy goods from Canada and Mexico (with energy at 10%), have prompted importers to accelerate shipments, boosting LTL volumes in Texas border hubs like Laredo and El Paso. Similarly, portside facilities handling imports from Asia and other regions are seeing increased drayage and transload activity, with LTL carriers moving goods from ports to inland distribution centers.

Key Takeaway: The tariff-driven import rush has created a short-term boom in LTL freight, especially for regional carriers near ports and borders. U.S. shippers should capitalize on this window of heightened activity while preparing for potential disruptions.

Uneven Impacts Across LTL Carriers

While the import surge has lifted LTL volumes, the benefits are unevenly distributed. Regional carriers like Averitt, with strong footprints near seaports (e.g., Savannah, Charleston, Houston) and border crossings, are seeing significant upticks due to their proximity to import gateways. In contrast, national carriers, which often focus on long-haul routes, are experiencing less of a boost. This disparity stems from the nature of pull-forward freight, which is concentrated in gateway regions where goods enter the U.S. and require immediate LTL transport to warehouses or distribution centers.

The Journal of Commerce highlights that Averitt’s portside facilities have been “busy over the past 30 to 45 days” with drayage and transload operations, driven by the push to beat tariffs. This activity aligns with broader industry trends: S&P Global Market Intelligence reported that U.S. seaborne imports reached 2.75 million TEU in March 2025, up 10.2% year-over-year, with consumer goods like home furnishings (23.3% increase) and appliances (14.4% increase) leading the charge. These goods, often shipped via LTL after port clearance, are fueling demand for regional carriers.

However, the long-distance U.S. LTL Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures all-inclusive LTL costs to shippers, dropped slightly in March 2025 after sharp increases in January and February. This suggests that while volumes are up, pricing pressures may be easing as carriers absorb the surge without significant rate hikes, possibly due to ample capacity. The New York Times supports this, noting that trucking rates have not broadly increased despite the import rush, indicating sufficient truck capacity to handle the volume.

Key Takeaway: Regional LTL carriers are seeing the biggest gains from pull-forward freight, while national carriers may need to adjust strategies to capture this demand. Shippers should prioritize partnerships with regional carriers for cost-effective transport from ports and borders.

The Other Shoe: Declining Import Bookings from China

While the import rush has boosted LTL volumes, a significant slowdown looms. Averitt’s international non-vessel-operating common carrier (NVOCC) group reported a “noticeable decrease” in import container bookings from China, directly tied to the 145% tariffs imposed on Chinese goods starting April 10, 2025. These tariffs, combining a 125% base rate with an additional 20% import tax, have led to booking cancellations, with some ships departing China potentially half-empty through May.

This decline aligns with broader market trends. FreightWaves reported a 64% drop in U.S. imports from China between March 24-31 and April 1-8, 2025, as shippers scaled back orders in response to tariff costs. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index shows a 46% decline in spot rates for Shanghai exports since January 2025, reflecting weakened demand. VT Markets projects a 15% full-year drop in U.S. cargo volumes for 2025, with May alone expected to see a 20.5% decline in TEU compared to 2024, signaling a sharp contraction in import activity.

The elimination of the de minimis exemption for Chinese goods, effective May 2, 2025, further exacerbates the slowdown. Previously, shipments under $800 entered duty-free, fueling e-commerce growth. Now, these shipments face full tariffs and new customs fees (e.g., FedEx’s $4.50 or 2% disbursement fee), increasing costs and delaying clearances. This shift is particularly impactful for low-value consumer goods, which often rely on LTL transport after entering the U.S.

Mike Regan, chief relationship officer at TranzAct Technologies, summed up the outlook: “We’re still dealing with a very soft market with no imminent sign of when it gets better.” The tariff-driven LTL surge is likely to be short-lived, with volumes expected to taper off in Q2 2025 as import bookings dwindle.

Key Takeaway: The decline in Chinese import bookings signals a post-tariff slowdown that could reduce LTL demand by mid-2025. Shippers must prepare for a softer freight market and adjust inventory strategies accordingly.

Broader Market Context: Supply Chain Resilience

The tariff-driven dynamics are part of a broader supply chain narrative. CNBC reports that U.S. importers frontloaded shipments in January and February 2025, with supply chain financing transactions from Wells Fargo showing a 20-25% increase in Chinese supplier invoices. However, DataDocks data indicates a 41% month-over-month drop in freight volume bookings for April 2025, with the Northwest (-61%) and West (-52%) regions hit hardest. This suggests that while the import rush has boosted LTL volumes near gateways, broader freight demand is weakening as shippers adopt a “wait-and-see” approach.

The New York Times notes that the freight system has handled the import surge without the disruptions seen in 2021-2022, thanks to ample truck and rail capacity. Jason Miller, a supply chain management professor at Michigan State University, emphasized, “The import supply chain—railroads, trucks, and ocean carriers—has handled elevated imports over the past few months with limited challenges.” However, FreightWaves warns of a “tariff shockwave,” with global TEU bookings plummeting 49% in early April, signaling a rapid shift from frontloading to caution.

Key Takeaway: The supply chain has absorbed the import rush effectively, but declining bookings and tariff uncertainty point to a volatile Q2. Shippers need flexible strategies to manage this transition.

Strategic Recommendations for U.S. Shippers

To navigate the tariff-driven LTL surge and impending slowdown, U.S. shippers must act strategically. Gain Consulting recommends the following:

1. Partner with Regional LTL Carriers: Leverage carriers like Averitt with strong presence near ports and border crossings to handle pull-forward freight cost-effectively. Negotiate rates now to lock in capacity before demand softens.

2. Optimize Cross-Border Logistics: With U.S.-Mexico trade driving LTL volumes, streamline operations in Texas border hubs. Use transload facilities to consolidate shipments and reduce LTL costs.

3. Prepare for Chinese Import Declines: Diversify sourcing to USMCA countries (e.g., Mexico) or Southeast Asia (e.g., Vietnam, Thailand) to mitigate the impact of Chinese tariffs. CNBC notes that 61% of supply chain surveyed companies plan to relocate manufacturing to low-tariff regimes, with Vietnam and Mexico as top destinations.

4. Leverage Customs Bonded Warehouses: Store goods duty-free for up to five years to defer tariff costs, especially for consumer goods like home furnishings and appliances. Bloomberg reports a sixfold increase in bonded warehouse inquiries in 2025.

5. Enhance Customs Compliance: With the de minimis exemption ending, ensure accurate documentation and prepare for higher duties and fees. Use tools like CBP’s Automated Commercial Environment (ACE) to streamline clearances.

6. Monitor Freight Market Trends: Track LTL PPI and booking data to anticipate rate changes. C.H. Robinson forecasts a -4% year-over-year change in dry van linehaul costs for 2024, suggesting a soft market that may persist into 2025.

7. Invest in Visibility and Forecasting: Use real-time data platforms like Freightos Terminal or SONAR to monitor freight rates, port congestion, and booking trends. This will help you adjust inventory and routing strategies as import volumes fluctuate.

Key Takeaway: A combination of regional partnerships, diversified sourcing, and data-driven planning will help shippers maximize the LTL surge while preparing for a softer market.

How Gain Consulting Can Help

At Gain Consulting, we specialize in turning supply chain challenges into opportunities for U.S. shippers. Our team offers tailored solutions to address the complexities of the 2025 freight market:

• LTL Optimization: Connect you with regional carriers and negotiate rates to handle pull-forward freight efficiently.

• Sourcing Diversification: Identify alternative suppliers in low-tariff regions to reduce reliance on Chinese imports.

• Bonded Warehouse Strategy: Secure space and manage inventory to defer tariff costs.

• Customs Expertise: Ensure compliance with new tariff and de minimis regulations to avoid delays and penalties.

• Market Intelligence: Provide predictive analytics to anticipate freight volume and rate shifts.

The tariff-driven LTL surge offers a fleeting opportunity, but the impending slowdown demands proactive planning. Contact Gain Consulting today to build a resilient supply chain that thrives in 2025’s volatile market.

Sources: Journal of Commerce, April 2025; FreightWaves, April 15, 2025; New York Times, April 2, 2025; CNBC, April 14, 2025; VT Markets, April 14, 2025; Bloomberg, April 15, 2025